Author Topic: The Godfather Of Climate Change Admits he got it Wrong  (Read 875 times)

Offline squirrel

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Offline Big Gee

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Re: The Godfather Of Climate Change Admits he got it Wrong
« Reply #1 on: January 13, 2014, 01:15:50 AM »
You can't hide the light of truth from an open-mided genuine person with bags of humility.

The one thing you'll always notice about enlightened people is that they never become entrenched in an argument just to prove themselves right.

James Lovelock is one of those 'enlightened' people. He should be applauded and respected for his greatness & past contributions to science at the highest level.

 

Offline squirrel

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Re: The Godfather Of Climate Change Admits he got it Wrong
« Reply #2 on: January 13, 2014, 02:25:16 AM »
I also saw an interview with James Lovelock where he said that carbon sequestration (burying charcoal in the ground) might be the only way of locking the carbon back in the soil and thus further slowing down the climate change.
squirrels are often out their trees but never short of nuts.

Offline Tony

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Re: The Godfather Of Climate Change Admits he got it Wrong
« Reply #3 on: January 13, 2014, 08:19:22 PM »
"Lovelock still believes anthropogenic global warming is occurring and that mankind must lower its greenhouse gas emissions" which is what most environmentalists are saying. 


Offline Tony

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Re: The Godfather Of Climate Change Admits he got it Wrong
« Reply #4 on: January 13, 2014, 08:23:02 PM »
Also Lovelock supports the use of nuclear fuels for energy production - which is a pragmatic solution to global warming.  Not a popular view but sensible. 


Offline Big Gee

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Re: The Godfather Of Climate Change Admits he got it Wrong
« Reply #5 on: January 13, 2014, 11:39:10 PM »
"Lovelock still believes anthropogenic global warming is occurring and that mankind must lower its greenhouse gas emissions" which is what most environmentalists are saying.

Only a fool would say that there is no global warming - it's a fact and a fact that goes in cycles since the earth first had an atmosphere. There's also periodic global cooling.

What Lovelock has realised is that the "Chicken Licken" mentality of many "green" environmentalists is skewed. Man HAS a contributing hand in excessive emissions of gases that exasperate the problem. So do farting bovines, the sea, peat bogs & the major greenhouse factor is the water vapour that's evaporated into the atmosphere (about 70% contribution I think). He's obviously stepped back and re evaluated the main source of the problem and has realised that the whole issue has been an alarmist subject that did not warrant the hysterical predictions that some scientists have come up with. 
 

Offline galina

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Re: The Godfather Of Climate Change Admits he got it Wrong
« Reply #6 on: January 13, 2014, 11:52:25 PM »
Also Lovelock supports the use of nuclear fuels for energy production - which is a pragmatic solution to global warming.  Not a popular view but sensible.

Sorry Tony, I do not agree.  There have been too many accidents and the UK is not big enough to be able to afford large areas that are 'out of bounds' for centuries following an accident.

It took years before some Welsh hill farmers could sell their lambs following Chernobyl and they only caught a small drift of nuclear cloud from more than thousand miles away. 

I cannot for the life of me understand why we don't invest in wave power - year round, 24 hours and plentiful in our island location. 

Offline Tony

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Re: The Godfather Of Climate Change Admits he got it Wrong
« Reply #7 on: January 14, 2014, 01:38:57 AM »
 David Bellamy also said the same thing BG.  However that does not help to solve the problem and there is one.

This is worrying because it is affecting people now particularly the poorest in the world living on marginal soils, those near deserts - those near rivers that flood, those that live on islands.  And for their sake I would use nuclear fuel. 

Man has been contributing to atmospheric carbon dioxide since he started agriculture ten thousand years ago or so.  Agriculture and horticulture have been the major source of anthropogenic production of greenhouse gases for most of history.    The worry that most of the "Chicken Licken Green" environmentalists like me is that the amount of anthropogenic gases has increased exponentially especially over the last century.  If you extrapolate - and I realise that this is not an exact science - then the global temperature will continue to increase and make life difficult even for those living in rich western countries. 

However, we do not have to contribute any more greenhouse gasses be they carbon dioxide, water vapour, methane, nitrous oxides and the rest.  We can decide not to use ancient fossil carbon any more.  Infact we can sequester a lot of carbon using agriculture and horticulture and this will improve soil fertility even if global warming is not a problem. 

Incidentally, water vapour, which is a potent greenhouse gas produced when we burn fossil fuels, will stay in its gaseous form longer the warmer the global temperature gets.  This is another worrying factor - the feedback effect.

Most of the scientific research I have read is reasonably argued with lots of data.  Only the uninformed are hysterical and hysteria does not solve problems. 

This argument has been going on for a long time.  This is what I wrote in 2010 on another website and my blog.

Since the drought of 1976 I have been thinking that there is something happening to the weather. Before 1976 you never got roses after October. Afterwards, until this year, I have had flowers on my roses right up to December.
Before 1976 I found growing cucumber, tomato and sweet corn outside very difficult without a lot of care and protection. Now they are normal outdoor crops that I grow every year. I can grow busy lizzy outside and leave dahlia tubers and gladioli in the ground overwinter! I never did that before 1976.
Whether you think that it is Sun spots or human greenhouse gas does not matter. The climate is changing. It does not matter whether you believe it or not. It is not a matter of belief – it is a matter of interpretation of data. The weight of evidence suggests that global temperatures are increasing. While scientists debate whether human activity causes it or is just augmenting it, the vast majority read the data and interpret it as a climate changing event.
It is the same science that makes your mobile telephone work, your fridge to keep your food cold, the engine in your car work, explains how seeds germinate, what fire is, what smoke is made up of and what pollution does to our environment. If you reject one part of science you reject all science.
Don’t “believe” in global warming, don’t believe that man reached the moon in 1969, don’t believe that evolution is a fundamental process of biological science and don’t believe that cigarettes cause cancer. It does not matter. That does not change the data, the measurements or their most reasonable interpretation.
If you want to believe something, believe that all souls weigh the same.

I am going to believe that I will be able to grow carrots without any root fly damage this year.

There were changes in the climate and there has been since the Earth formed. Ice ages are a good example. They were probably caused by fluctuations in greenhouse gases and radiation from the Sun. Just like today.
Science does not prove things one way or the other. Scientists leave proof to mathematicians. Science does not deal in facts although lots of scientists would argue with that. Good scientists go with the data, their measurements and try to interpret them as reasonably as possible.

Let me give you an example. I could grow a row of peas measure their height and the weight of peas I got from them. I could measure the amount of nutrient added to the soil. I could relate that to the weight of peas obtained. Yet you could come along and say you don't believe in my peas and you are not going to look at the measurements because the peas do not exist. Your belief does not alter the existence of the peas one way or the other. The problem comes when your belief makes you walk across my allotment as if the peas were not there and destroy them all.
Science does not prove things; it just interprets data, hopefully reasonably.

Totally agree bad data produces bad interpretation. Any scientist worth their salt would have questioned, and did question, the Himalaya assertions. I don't think that they based their report on any scientific data whatsoever. They just believed it to be so.
But it was basic physics that enabled us to question those assertions. Questioning data is a fundamental part of science and is going on all the time not just with silly assertions about Himalayan glaciers. That's what they were doing in the leaked emails. They were talking about how they were going to challenge someone's data. Very legitimate part of science.
How could you do it any other way without waiting until 2030? You cannot use science to shoot science down.
Fiddling the facts is not part of science. It may be part of corporate business, government spin, and people's financial gain. Again, though just because they are doing this does not change the data. The measurements are the measurements. People are wrong to fiddle data and there are a lot of scientists out there that are much cleverer than I am that will shout their objections very loudly; just as they did with cold fusion. To say that things are not happening because you believe a tabloid newspaper or Jeremy Clarkson does not alter the data either.

The truth will out…


The most reasonable interpretation of the data is that the climate is warming. Don’t take my word for it just look at the graphs on http://www.realclimate.org/ for yourself. I would wish a lot more people looked at the data for themselves rather than rely on a television presenter for their views. There is also increasing evidence that human activity has caused this temperature increase. There is further evidence that this increase in global temperatures is affecting low lying ocean islands due to rise in sea levels. Expansion of the Sahara desert in Africa is a lot more serious than whether you have to pay more tax for your lawn mower petrol.
This is just the beginning.

As Jesus said: there is none so blind as those that cannot see.

I agree that the weather is fairly cold at the moment, although nothing like I remember in the 1950s and 1960s. That has little to do with global warming. The southern hemisphere has had one of the hottest years since records began. That is to do with climate not weather.
« Last Edit: January 21, 2014, 11:36:15 AM by Tony »

Offline squirrel

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Re: The Godfather Of Climate Change Admits he got it Wrong
« Reply #8 on: January 15, 2014, 12:08:36 AM »
Lovelock also supports fracking, despite the environmental and human suffering in many fracking areas in the states.

I don't doubt that there is global warming and that we are one of the big contributors to this. Just as there is global concern about water shortage and how the water table in some primitive farming areas has dropped by vast amounts to the point where they are no longer able to grow anything at all. What's the reason for this? They were offered to good to refuse prices to grow water dependant crops, like salad crop, for our table, which then had to be transported across the globe to reach our shops. Did the shopper know this? Of course not. It was packed in the UK so looked like it was UK produce.

If you haven't seen this video before about the way our modern farming methods are unsustainable then do watch it. It is one I keep dipping back into because there is just so much vital info in there.



I know Lovelock still believes in global warming and has only said his predictions as to when the crisis would hit has changed. But the burning of fossil fuels is only one aspect of it.

squirrels are often out their trees but never short of nuts.

Offline galina

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Re: The Godfather Of Climate Change Admits he got it Wrong
« Reply #9 on: January 15, 2014, 11:42:08 AM »


I know Lovelock still believes in global warming and has only said his predictions as to when the crisis would hit has changed. But the burning of fossil fuels is only one aspect of it.

It is a very informative video.  I saw it when you first posted the link.  Ties in right with what Prof.  Tim Lang says (who I have quoted in the past) but brings it close to home in a very direct, easy to understand style.

It is worth watching.  By the way, I find that on this site I can only watch videos if I go to the full screen version.  If I leave it not expanded, the video is a pastel colour blur.  But this may not be the same for everybody.  Just wanted to say, in case somebody else cannot watch it, because they have the same problem on their machine.

Yes - here 'he was wrong' does not mean he was wrong per se, he was 'only' wrong to be quite as alarmist as he had been, it seems.  On the other hand many campaigners feel the need to be just a little 'alarmist' to hammer their points home.  Otherwise nobody would listen! 
« Last Edit: January 15, 2014, 11:44:06 AM by galina »

Offline Big Gee

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Re: The Godfather Of Climate Change Admits he got it Wrong
« Reply #10 on: January 15, 2014, 01:10:24 PM »
The problem you are experiencing with playing the movie clips is probably down to the codec library in your browser galina. The actual video clips are streamed from YouTube so the way they are displayed in individual browsers would have nothing to do with the Gardeners Chat-Shed Forum site.

I don't think any of us have said that Lovelock was wrong. I think we all agree that man has an influence on the climate, by what degree is the salient point. It annoys me when people ask "do you believe in climate change?" which is a totally different question to "do you believe MAN is responsible for climate change?".

Global climate change is in constant flux (often wildly fluctuating over very short periods when compared to the age of the earth, and how much change has taken place over eons of time). Within man's recorded history we've had the Medieval Climatic Anomaly which was a time of warm climate in the North Atlantic region that may also have been related to other climate events around the world during that time in other countries (during the Roman occupation of Britain it was possible to successfully grow grapes even in the wet and cold western fringes of these islands that is now called Wales!). The last big increase in temperatures was the Medieval Climatic Anomaly from about AD 950 to 1250. It was followed by a cooler period in the North Atlantic termed the Little Ice Age. We've only just come out of that!

What Lovelock has realised is that his predictions and warnings were totally alarmist (what I call the "Chicken Licken" phenomenon). BOTH camps on either side of the argument have fallen into the same trap. On the one side you have the doomsday predictions of the Lovelock camp (but he's now seen the error of his actions) whilst on the other side some are stupid enough to insist that there is no such thing as climate change. The reality lies somewhere in between. Global climate change is a reality that has always been. Global climate change, whilst exasperated by our use of fossil fuels, is NOT triggered by, or wholly kept going by man's input. It is our over bloated arrogance regarding how powerful & influential we are that gives us the impression that we are solely to blame.
 

Offline rugbypost

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Re: The Godfather Of Climate Change Admits he got it Wrong
« Reply #11 on: January 15, 2014, 07:11:51 PM »
To many unanswered questions .The big think tank over the years are paid for by private money it is not in the interest to give us all the facts good or bad. Galina was saying about Fracking  a lot of the counties where this has been taking place have been prone to earth quakes , or they have been extracting in areas prone to earth quakes .What with the vast change in weather conditions  is it wise for Britain to get into this at this time. Back in the 80 s the mines had to be brought into line with modern production ,costs, usage. But no one said how we were going to get our next lot of power from. The channel tunnel was built so we imported from France . Sold our Crow jewels Water, Electricity, Gas for pennies and know the tax payer has to fund the next generation of power stations and nobody seems to know which way to go. Solar power not a lot of good we have more dark days than light . Wind waste of time they are more off line than on due to they can not run in windy conditions, :-)snigger Wave power looks good to me they say the only thing you will never stop is the sea . Been a good read of everyone

Offline EllaBAcevedo

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Re: The Godfather Of Climate Change Admits he got it Wrong
« Reply #12 on: September 10, 2016, 07:16:51 AM »
Thanks for sharing

Offline Big Gee

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Re: The Godfather Of Climate Change Admits he got it Wrong
« Reply #13 on: September 10, 2016, 11:52:23 AM »
Thanks for sharing

You're welcome EllaBAcevedo!

And a big WELCOME to the 'Shed' as well - I look forward to your future posts - ENJOY!  BOF)
 

Offline Westheathdave

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Re: The Godfather Of Climate Change Admits he got it Wrong
« Reply #14 on: September 10, 2016, 04:15:18 PM »
Problem again will not play here AGAIN.

Offline Big Gee

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Re: The Godfather Of Climate Change Admits he got it Wrong
« Reply #15 on: September 11, 2016, 12:24:27 AM »
No problem Dave, as the error message says, the video is not available. It means it's been removed from YouTube if there's nothing there you can't play it can you? Nothing wrong with your browser this time, and it has nothing to do with this site - have a word with YouTube!
 

Offline Westheathdave

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Re: The Godfather Of Climate Change Admits he got it Wrong
« Reply #16 on: September 11, 2016, 09:26:24 AM »
Never got any error message if I had would not have bothered to say anything  :-)snigger

Offline Big Gee

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Re: The Godfather Of Climate Change Admits he got it Wrong
« Reply #17 on: September 11, 2016, 12:28:39 PM »
No probs Dave. If you scroll down to Squirrel's post (where is she these days?), where she inserted a video clip you'll see what I mean.  ThU5:-)